Today’s crypto market is expected to move in this patterns on UTC+6 timezone. From 8:00 AM to 3:00 PM, it’s likely to be green (prices going up). Then, from 4:00 PM to 11:00 PM, it might turn red (prices dropping). After midnight until 8:00 AM, it’s expected to go green again. So, if you’re planning to trade, keep an eye on these windows.
Now, let’s talk about what’s driving the market. China’s PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) has gone up, which means their economy is doing better. This increase in economic activity is causing more money to circulate, leading to inflation in the Chinese Yuan. This inflation is affecting other currencies like the US Dollar, Japanese Yen, and South Korean Won. Basically, when the Yuan inflates, it eats into the value of these other currencies.
Last week, there was a mistake in the analysis because the end-of-month RRP (Reverse Repurchase Agreements) spike wasn’t considered. But tomorrow, the RRP is expected to drop, which could be good news for the market. If Saturday turns out to be a green day, next week might be even greener. Let’s see if that plays out.
Inflation is a hot topic right now. In February, inflation rose, and the Federal Reserve (the Fed) is expected to take a dovish stance, meaning they might not raise interest rates aggressively. This could actually be great news for Bitcoin in March because when the Fed is dovish, investors often turn to assets like Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation.
But here’s the thing: some people are saying inflation is going down. Really? How can that be when the M2 money supply (the total amount of money in circulation) is increasing? More money in the system usually means higher inflation, not lower.
Goldman Sachs, one of the biggest names in finance, just “gave up” on the US economy. They’re basically saying things aren’t looking great. And you know how politics works—people are already starting to find reasons to criticize Trump again. It’s like the honeymoon phase of his presidency is over. Remember how every new president promises to fix everything in the first 100 days? Well, after 100 days, they usually say, “Actually, it’s not 100 days—it’s a 5-year plan.” Sound familiar?
Goldman’s data shows they’ve thrown in the towel, and they’re saying the US is heading into a recession under Trump’s administration. The biggest red flag? Inflation. Trade uncertainties are skyrocketing, and tariffs (taxes on imports) are pushing inflation even higher. (For context, inflation above 2% is considered high.)
30-year inflation is peaking, and government spending cuts are pulling fiscal policy deeper into trouble. This is going to have ripple effects everywhere. Layoffs in the government sector are already happening. According to President Biden’s definition, a recession has already started because the growth in public sector jobs (like government workers and healthcare employees) that used to dominate the economy is now being wiped out by companies like Elon Musk’s. The economic optimism from Trump’s early days is fading, and the market isn’t convinced that the tariffs will actually work.
The market is predicting that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 2026. Stimulus packages are still stuck, and GDP growth is slowing down. Goldman Sachs has basically admitted defeat. But is the US really in a recession? Well, not entirely. The PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) is still rising, and private capital is driving growth. This is Goldman’s “secret sauce”—they believe big private investments are about to pour in, followed by government spending. When that happens, boom! The economy could take off again.
But here’s my take: no matter who you ask, the real issue is liquidity. The economy is dry, and it needs to be “watered” with more money. Whether it’s through private investments, government spending, or stimulus, the system needs more cash flow to keep going.
So, what does this mean for crypto? Well, with inflation rising and the Fed printing more money, assets like Bitcoin could see increased interest as a store of value. Keep an eye on the market today, and let’s see how things play out!
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.