The economy’s slowing, the Fed’s printing money and Bitcoin’s sitting pretty ready to go up – 22 March 2025

So, imagine the crypto world is like a big, unpredictable party. Bitcoin (BTC) is the main guest, and everyone’s watching what it does. Right now, Bitcoin is kind of standing still, like it’s deciding whether to dance (go up) or sit down (go down). This is called a “doji” in trading terms—basically, it’s stuck in the middle. If it turns green (up), it might spike and then drop. If it turns red (down), it might dip and then bounce back. It’s like Bitcoin is saying, “I’m not sure yet, give me a minute.”

Meanwhile, in the background, there’s this thing called the Reverse Repo Program (RRP), which is like a big money pool where banks park their cash. Recently, that pool shrank to 200 billion, but Bitcoin didn’t even flinch—it’s still chilling around 84,000. Even though China’s central bank (PBOC) is pulling money out of the system, Bitcoin’s holding steady. It’s like, “Whatever, I’m good.”

Now, here’s where it gets interesting. The Federal Reserve (the Fed) is slowing down its Quantitative Tightening (QT) program. That’s like them saying, “Okay, we’re not going to take money out of the economy as fast as we were.” They’ve cut it from 25 billion to just 5 billion. This is a big deal because it’s like the first step toward Quantitative Easing (QE), which is when they start pumping money back into the economy. If this keeps up, and the RRP drops below 100 billion by early April, well… let’s just say Bitcoin might start dancing again.

Speaking of the Fed, one of their big shots, Goolsbee, said something important. He’s like, “If the economy slows down, we might cut interest rates. But if inflation goes up because of tariffs (taxes on imports), we’ll have to rethink everything.” Trump, on the other hand, is all about cutting rates no matter what. But here’s the thing: even if the Fed cuts rates, tariffs might still mess things up. And if the economy slows down while inflation rises? That’s a bad combo. But guess what? Bitcoin doesn’t care. It’s like, “I’m going up no matter what.”

Why? Because when the economy slows down, the Fed usually prints more money to fix it. But printing money doesn’t fix the real economy—it just creates more cash floating around. And where does that cash go? A lot of it ends up in Bitcoin, because people see it as a safe bet when traditional money loses value. It’s like, “Why invest in a slow economy when you can put your money in something that’s designed to go up?”

Oh, and there’s more drama. The Small Business Administration is cutting over 40% of its staff, and the March jobs report (NFP) was weak. These are signs the economy might be struggling. But the Fed is hinting at injecting money back into the system by March 2025. So, if you’re bearish (pessimistic) about Bitcoin, that’s fine—it’s a free world. But for those who believe, the signs are pointing to Bitcoin staying strong.

Lastly, the Fed has to think about more than just tariffs. There are tax cuts and other issues coming up that could shake things up. And with Trump in the mix, there’s always some drama. But again, Bitcoin’s like, “I’m just here for the ride.”

So, in short: the economy’s slowing, the Fed’s printing money, and Bitcoin’s sitting pretty, ready to go up. It’s like the ultimate hedge against all the chaos. Cool, right?