Hey friend! Here’s the scoop, simplified but backed by data:
Morning (8:00-15:00 UTC+6): Green Vibes (But Why?)
The U.S. Reverse Repo (RRP) is up, sucking liquidity out, but there’s weird balancing act happening—maybe because they’re prepping for April when Quantitative Tightening (QT) slows down? That could mean more money floating around instead of rate cuts. Meanwhile, China’s PBOC promised to inject 450 billion Yuan but… where is it? 🧐 Still, optimism hangs in the air (because, well, we’re all stuck in this game).
Afternoon (16:00-18:00): Red Alert
Dip time. No big drama here—just market catching its breath.
Evening (19:00-22:00): Green Again (Thanks, Bad News!)
U.S. Durable Goods Orders dropped—meaning fewer people buying fridges, cars, etc. Combine that with weak retail sales, PMI, and consumer confidence? Dollar (DXY) takes a hit, so crypto gets a boost. Bad economy = crypto hopium.
Late Night (23:00-01:00): Back to Red
Market’s tired. Kashkari (a Fed guy) might sound hawkish (hinting at higher rates), and RRP could rise again. Unless he surprises us with a dovish twist—then all bets are off.
Early Morning (02:00-08:00): More Red
Same story: RRP up, Kashkari likely tough on inflation. But if he softens? Plot twist!
The Housing Market Mystery
Home prices are up, but not because people are buying—supply is at an 18-year high! It’s a weird “Giffen good” situation (the more they build, the pricier it gets). Inflation’s hiding here. Meanwhile, consumer confidence is at a 12-year low. Who’s buying homes at high rates? Probably not normal folks—just the rich getting richer.
Inflation Target? Forget 2%—Now It’s 3%. Deflation hopium = crushed.
Trump’s Playbook: Lower yields, weaker USD. How? By making other countries spend more so the U.S. can cut back. They already pushed Germany to pump 1 trillion into its economy—Canada might be next. The logic is simple: If the rest of the world spends, the U.S. can hoard liquidity while pretending to be conservative.
Trump, Tariffs & the Dollar’s Future
Trump’s playing the tariff game hard, but using the dollar as a weapon against everyone is pushing the world toward an alternative financial system. Nobody likes being strong-armed forever—eventually, countries will look for ways to trade without relying on the U.S. dollar. That’s how dedollarization happens.
Since 2020, the U.S. dollar has lost 26% of its purchasing power. What 1 bought back then only gets you 0.74 worth of goods now. It’s the hidden tax that eats away at your savings.
Meanwhile, companies like Hyundai are investing billions in U.S. manufacturing, but not because they’re excited. It’s more like “Better invest here or face tariffs.” Money always goes where it’s treated best, and right now, investing in the U.S. isn’t as profitable as elsewhere. High labor costs, limited global demand for “Made in USA” products, and growing appeal in China tell the real story.
China’s Countermove: PBOC injected 159.5B yuan today (net). Their theory? When the U.S. drains liquidity, China floods theirs to attract investors. Sneaky!
How to Spot a Slowdown?
Forget the fancy economic indicators—just look at restaurants. If the ones that usually have long lines suddenly have empty tables, people are cutting back. That’s a dead giveaway that the economy is slowing.
Final Prediction: Red Day (unless Kashkari or RRP surprise us). But hey, in crypto, expect the unexpected.
Markets are a mess of liquidity games, inflation tricks, and political drama. Crypto’s bouncing on bad news, the dollar’s weakening, and everyone’s waiting for the next Fed plot twist. What a time to be alive, right?
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