Crypto Lip Sync

So, the U.S. economy is kinda in a weird spot right now. People are making less money, and fewer houses are being bought. But wait—unemployment claims are down, which kinda makes sense since a bunch of people got deported. Basically, Trump is trying to get the economy moving, but he’s using the people as an excuse.

Now, for the crypto market today:

• Morning (8-10 AM UTC+6): A bit slow, slightly red, nothing crazy.
• Midday (11-3 PM): Green, thanks to Japan’s 2-year government bonds, which could push Yen inflation.
• Afternoon (4-9 PM): If inflation (PCE data) is too high, the Fed might have to get aggressive, meaning Bitcoin could dip.
• Evening (10-11:30 PM): Green again, big players are full for now, no crazy moves.
• Late night (12-8 AM): Mostly red as the RRP (reverse repo) spikes for the last day of January.
• If PCE isn’t too bad, Bitcoin might hold up okay.

Now, here’s the kicker—Trump just announced this big economic stimulus plan with a fancy name about helping people with rising prices. Sounds nice, but in reality, it’s just printing more money. The problem? He doesn’t really get how finance works.

Inflation doesn’t happen because of too many regulations or greedy companies—it happens when the Fed prints too much money and lowers interest rates. Trump thinks cutting rates will lower prices, but actually, it’ll just make things more expensive in the long run. Sure, it might boost the economy short-term, but it wrecks purchasing power because wages won’t keep up with rising costs.

Ron Paul (legend) says the U.S. needs a free market—basically, the government shouldn’t control money, the market should. History kinda proves that when governments mess with money, it leads to chaos, inequality, and unfair advantages.

So what does all this mean for crypto?
Since the money supply (M2) is increasing, Bitcoin is still looking good for a rise.

Yo, bro, here’s the deal with crypto today:

The Fed just kept interest rates at 4.5%, meaning no hike or cut—just a pause. But Powell (the Fed chair) sounded super chill about it. What’s even crazier? He basically said banks in the U.S. can handle crypto transactions now. And since the U.S. is a trendsetter, that could mean more global adoption.

Now, there’s something called RRP, and it’s been moving up. But don’t get it twisted—it’s not because of interest rates. It’s because Powell is being soft on crypto. If the Fed actually cuts rates, this could pump even more. Oh, and here’s the part I love—Powell admitted interest rates are still above the neutral rate, meaning there’s a high chance they cut again in March.

What’s happening today?

• There’s GDP data, jobless claims, and home sales reports. Big stuff.
• Bitcoin’s dip? It’s just waiting for its next move up.
• If Japan’s economy shows strength, BTC could see some action later tonight. Why? Because Japan’s economy is tied to the U.S., so when the Fed pauses, Japan might feel comfortable hiking rates. That creates an early trading opportunity.

Market timeline (UTC+6):

• 9 AM – 3 PM → Green (Japan plays a role here, bond buying drops but foreign investors grab Japanese stocks)
• 4 PM – 5:30 PM → Red (Some big spending announcements)
• 6 PM – 10 PM → Green (GDP, jobs data, home sales reports drop)
• 10 PM – 11:30 PM → Market moves sideways
• Midnight – 8 AM → Green again (RRP effects kick in)

Why next week looks interesting:

• Right now, the market hasn’t absorbed China’s liquidity yet because of the Lunar New Year.
• Next week, when the PBOC (China’s central bank) gets back in action, Bitcoin should see some green.
• If the Japanese Yen weakens, the Chinese Yuan might follow. China wants to stay competitive against Japan, so they’ll likely keep their monetary policy loose.

Key event tonight:

• Initial Jobless Claims → This tracks how many people in the U.S. applied for unemployment benefits. More claims = weaker dollar (DXY down). Fewer claims = stronger dollar (DXY up).
• GDP report → If GDP rises, inflation rises, which usually boosts Bitcoin. If GDP drops, the economy is in trouble, and liquidity injections might come (good for BTC).
• Pending home sales → Measures home purchases under contract but not closed yet. If this rises, the dollar strengthens. If it falls, the dollar weakens.

So what’s the takeaway?

• Everything in the market comes down to liquidity. More liquidity = higher Bitcoin.
• Since Trump’s presidency, these reports have actually started making sense. If jobless claims rise, GDP drops, and home sales fall, that’s real trouble, and the Fed will have no choice but to inject liquidity.
• At the end of the day, it’s all about the money flow.

And if someone still asks, “Where’s Bitcoin going?” The answer is simple: If I knew, I wouldn’t be here talking about it, I’d already be rich.