Crypto Lip Sync

So, the U.S. economy is showing some mixed signals—housing starts are down, but building permits are up, meaning people are still planning to build. The Fed had a meeting (which probably didn’t say anything surprising), and overall, the economic outlook is looking a bit better.

Meanwhile, China just announced a fuel subsidy, which is a big deal. They’re cutting gasoline and diesel prices for the first time in 2025. But here’s the catch—cheaper fuel doesn’t mean cheaper goods. Businesses won’t just lower their prices because their costs go down. They’ll keep charging as much as they can.

And then there’s the bigger picture: If China is really doing this subsidy, plus removing investment restrictions, the market should have reacted by now. But it hasn’t. So, where’s the money? Are we just watching another episode of Chinese Drama: Financial Edition?

What’s happening in the markets today?

Here’s the expected market rhythm for the day:

Morning (8-10 AM UTC+6): Calm before the storm—no major moves yet.

Late morning to early afternoon (11 AM – 3 PM): China’s central bank (PBOC) might inject liquidity, but they need to keep the Yen weak to stay competitive.

Afternoon (4-6 PM): Asian markets close, and South Korean traders might start shorting before the U.S. market opens.

Evening (7-10 PM): Market likely goes green due to economic data and China’s potential loan rate decision.

Late night (10 PM – 12 AM): Some big players (like Jane Street) might short the market.

Overnight (1-8 AM): Bitcoin should stay up, but it might slow down between 4-6 AM when the U.S. market is closed.

Oh, and China is announcing its loan interest rate soon—currently at 3.1%, which is super low. If they keep it there or lower it, Bitcoin will stay bullish. If they somehow raise it (which is unlikely), Bitcoin could take a hit.

The bigger geopolitical game

Trump is going full crypto-friendly mode because he sees an opportunity to take liquidity from China.

China, on the other hand, is cleaning out foreign investments, stockpiling gold, banning crypto (but still monitoring it through Hong Kong), and setting up stimulus plans.

The U.S. is trying to keep its economy looking strong, delaying debt ceiling decisions, cutting costs, and subtly keeping an eye on Bitcoin.

Essentially, Bitcoin is becoming the center of global liquidity, a safe haven for people in both China and the U.S. If you’re still bearish on Bitcoin, are you really sure?

Final thoughts

Big asset managers have their Bitcoin cost basis at $95K. You think they’ll just sit there and let it drop? No way. They’re going to manage the market to avoid losses. So, even if Bitcoin dips, there’s a safety net.

The real question is: Who wins this game? China? The U.S.? Bitcoin itself? Either way, things are about to get interesting.

The market’s been a bit shaky, but there’s some good news. The NY Empire Index is rising, which means money’s starting to flow from investors again. This liquidity is important because it shows investors are getting cash from banks. But, interestingly, the NAHB (a housing market indicator) is down, which suggests inflation might be close to hitting its lowest point. The big news? The U.S. national debt is about to rise again, and whenever that happens, housing prices tend to go up.

But here’s the twist: RRP (Reverse Repo) rates are still climbing, even though the amounts are small. That’s why we’ve seen these quick price changes recently. But don’t worry, there are signs that big players like AM are buying in after Saylor, so things might start to get more stable.

Today, we’ll be keeping an eye on things like Housing Starts and the Meeting Minutes from the Fed. If we see China’s real estate prices go up, that’s a sign inflation there is rising too. In fact, China’s stepping in to save a company called Vanke, which is about to go bankrupt. That’s a signal that China’s ready to bounce back economically, and if housing prices in China rise, we might see Bitcoin go up as well.

The market today is pretty predictable. For example, early morning (8–10 AM), things will be calm. But then, from 11 AM to 3 PM, expect some positive momentum, especially with a report on the Loan Prime Rate from China. Around late afternoon (4–6 PM), Asian markets may dip. Then, from 7–10 PM, things will likely turn green again. But if Housing Starts drop, it’s a sign that inflation is near its lowest point, so expect some volatility.

Now, Spencer Hakimian, a big name in market analysis, says Japan’s economy is in a similar spot. The 10-year bond rate in Japan is higher than before, which broke the markets last year. If Japan’s yen hits 150, it could cause some serious issues for markets. But it’s worth watching closely.

Meanwhile, China’s housing market is showing signs of recovery. Prices only dropped by 0.07%, which means they’re almost stable and could start rising soon. And when housing prices go up in China, it tends to drive up inflation, which in turn boosts Bitcoin’s price.

Oh, and let’s not forget the U.S. national debt will continue to rise, which historically leads to higher home prices. So, keep your eyes peeled for some potential market moves this week.

Now, about your own situation—you’re not selling because you’re in it for the long haul. You’ve been trading for a year, and while you haven’t made huge profits yet, you haven’t lost either. Your initial million investment is still intact, and that’s a big win in itself. The calmness and peace of mind that come from not losing money are what you want to share. You believe in the long-term game and know the crypto world is going to keep growing—big companies like Samsung, iPhone, and even washing machines are all getting into crypto. You’re not selling because you know what you’re doing, and that’s a solid mindset.

In the end, you’re sticking to your plan, staying calm, and trusting that things will rise over time. So, just keep going, don’t stress the short-term ups and downs, and you’ll come out ahead.

So, this morning, I was hoping for a “green Monday,” meaning a good start for the crypto market. But turns out, it only made a small move up before dropping again—just a little teaser. This actually signals a shift in liquidity. There’s also an inverse doji, which hints at a possible trend change.

Now, Japan’s GDP data came out strong, but since yesterday was a holiday, that money hasn’t flowed into the market yet. Today, it will, especially from Asia and the US. Later tonight, we have an important US housing market report (NAHB), which could shake things up.

Market Timeline (UTC+6):

• 8-10 AM – Nothing much happening, just chilling.
• 11 AM – 3 PM – Market should turn green because Xi Jinping is meeting with business leaders. In China, business is all about money, not loyalty.
• 4-6 PM – Expect a dip as the Korean market sells off.
• 7-11 PM – Back to green, thanks to US economic data.
• 12-4 AM – Could go red again, especially with Trump speaking. Watch how the US dollar (DXY) reacts.
• 5-8 AM – Green again as liquidity shifts.

The Big Picture:

Markets move based on fundamentals (big trends) and daily news (short-term price moves). Right now, inflation isn’t going down—it’s actually going up. Why? Because there’s not enough liquidity (money flow), and that can’t last forever. Governments either have to pump more money in or face serious problems like recession or even war.

Bitcoin is just waiting. Instead of expecting BTC to skyrocket, it’s likely that money will move into altcoins first—because it’s easier to push an altcoin up by 20% than BTC. Ethereum has already started testing liquidity, which is a clue.

Why Does the NAHB Report Matter?

NAHB tracks the US housing market, and housing is a big deal because it directly affects inflation. The US government funds itself largely through its people, and for most people, their biggest financial goal is owning a home. That’s why politicians always promise easier access to housing during elections.

Here’s the trick: when house prices go up, inflation goes up. Why? Because the government uses rising home prices as an excuse to print more money (M2 supply). This only happens in the US, though—don’t apply this logic to countries like Thailand.

If NAHB data is strong, it means inflation is rising, which means more money printing. That’s bullish for Bitcoin.

Hedge Funds Are Buying Raw Materials

Big players just made their fastest move in 4 years to buy materials like timber, oil, and metals. What does this mean?

• Are they preparing for a Taiwan war? Maybe.
• Are we heading toward another Great Depression? No idea.
• Will Bitcoin rise? Yes.

Why? Because in a crisis, gold usually goes up. But since gold can be sanctioned by the US, investors need an alternative—Bitcoin. Bitcoin is becoming the go-to hedge against inflation, though daily price moves will still be volatile.

China’s Shift: “Get Rich First”

President Xi just gave the green light for Chinese companies to make money first before worrying about the greater good. This is a big deal because before, if you got rich in China without government approval, you could get investigated.

Now, Xi is basically saying, “Bring your money back home, we won’t seize it.” That’s why Jack Ma is back in the spotlight. This is similar to a tax amnesty, where China increases its money supply without directly printing more cash.

What does this mean for Bitcoin? More liquidity in the market means more inflation, and inflation tends to push BTC higher. However, expect price swings due to trading activities.

Bottom line: Bitcoin is in a long-term uptrend because of inflation, but the daily moves will be choppy due to news and data releases.

So, here’s the deal with the crypto market today. You know how weekends can be unpredictable? Well, Saturday was chill, Sunday was a bit rough, and now Monday looks like it’s trying to get ahead of the game. So far, everything’s lining up as expected.

One interesting thing—some asset management firms are making small buys. That usually means they’re gearing up to buy big later. Today looks green, but watch out for early morning tomorrow. There’s not much going on in terms of big economic events—just Japan’s GDP data and a few speeches from U.S. Fed officials, but nothing too aggressive.

Now, if we break it down by time:

• Morning till afternoon (8 AM – 3 PM UTC+6) → Market should be green but relaxed. The U.S. has a holiday, and China is pumping money into the system without withdrawing it. Japan’s GDP looks good on paper, but it’s mostly because inflation is up, not because the economy is actually growing. Keep an eye on inflation reports coming on Feb 20.
• Late afternoon (4 PM – 6 PM) → Might turn red because Chinese stocks are rising (which sometimes means money moves out of crypto).
• Evening (7 PM – midnight) → Pretty neutral, not much action expected.
• Late night to early morning (1 AM – 8 AM) → Likely green again.

Now, about Japan’s GDP—on the surface, it looks like the economy is doing well, but in reality, it’s just inflation pushing up the numbers. The Yen strengthened a little against the dollar, but that’s probably just temporary. It’s like when a country tries to make their currency look stronger for a bit, but the underlying issue is still there. We’ll see if this holds.

Also, there’s an interesting take from Kendrick at Standard Chartered. He thinks this weekend would be different and the market would be green. Technically, he’s not wrong—MACD (a market indicator) is flipping positive, and RSI is neutral. But since it’s Sunday, the real movement will likely happen on Monday. Markets love to mess with people before a real rally, so expect some manipulation before prices actually go up. The real move? Probably next week—so taking profits then might be a good idea.

Lastly, some global politics stuff—Russia and Ukraine might start new peace talks in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday. It’s weird because these things used to happen in Switzerland, but Switzerland kind of lost its credibility after it joined U.S. sanctions against Russia. Now, Saudi is stepping in as the new neutral ground. If Saudi is leading the talks, there might be some behind-the-scenes deals—like Russia agreeing to certain terms in exchange for Saudi dropping some alliances (maybe no more BRICS, no Petro Yuan, or something related to Iran).

So, bottom line:

• Monday looks green, but watch for early morning dips.
• Japan’s “good” economic data is mostly inflation.
• Market might try to shake people out before a real rally.
• Peace talks in Saudi might have deeper geopolitical shifts behind them.

Let’s see how this plays out!

Chill Saturday vibes.

So, today’s market? Probably red. Why? Because tomorrow’s a public holiday, and retail traders won’t rush in early. No big data releases today, but tomorrow morning, before 8 AM, Japan drops its GDP report.

Market outlook (UTC+6):

8 AM – 3 PM: Red

4 PM – 6 PM: Calm

7 PM – 11 PM: Green

Midnight – 8 AM: Red, but with some volatility

I’m calling Saturday chill, Sunday red. Meanwhile, Kendrick from Standard Chartered says this weekend will be green. So we’ve got a little competition—Kendrick vs. me, 0-1 in my favor (for now). He didn’t factor in that Monday’s a holiday, which could mess up his prediction.

The banking mess & Bitcoin’s role:

Now, here’s something interesting. If a U.S. bank collapses, Bitcoin tends to go up. Why? Because when a bank fails, it basically means people’s money isn’t actually there—it’s tied up in bad loans.

Right now, there are rumors that a bunch of houses in Washington, D.C., are up for sale. If true, banks with heavy exposure to mortgages (like 80% of their portfolio) could be in trouble. Banks don’t like foreclosing homes—it locks up their money instead of keeping it moving. They’d rather renegotiate payments.

But if a bank does go under, trust in the banking system drops, and people flock to Bitcoin. Remember when SVB collapsed? Bitcoin jumped from $19K to $23K because people were fed up with the system—everyday folks get scrutinized for small transactions, while the elites move billions untouched.

China’s economic strategy:

Then there’s China. Foreign investment there has dried up for 24 months straight—basically, investors don’t trust China anymore. But some say this is part of President Xi’s plan: he wants China’s economy to be self-sufficient.

The logic? If foreign brands dominate—like iPhones, McDonald’s, and Toyota—China’s people are just working for foreign profits. Sure, investment is great, but if it doesn’t come with technology transfer, what’s the point? Workers stay workers, while foreign companies rake in the cash.

Xi wants China to be independent. If they ever get sanctioned like Russia, they’ll still be fine. Used to McDonald’s? Switch to “Mekdo.” Driving Toyota? Swap for BYD. iPhone? There’s Huawei. They’re setting themselves up to stand alone if needed.

Meanwhile, look at Thailand—Toyota’s been investing there since 1960, but Thailand still doesn’t have its own major car brand. If sanctions hit, even simple car parts like ball bearings could get blocked. Heck, even singing a song on stage can trigger a $1.5 billion copyright fine these days.

China, though? They copy everything. A new snack brand like “Nabati” pops up, and boom—next day, there’s ‘Naboti’ everywhere.

So yeah, today’s market? Probably red. But the real action is in bank stability, Bitcoin moves, and China’s long game.

“Yo, so here’s what’s happening in the markets today. It’s kinda wild.”

First off, China’s been playing some serious money games. Normally, they release their M1 data (which shows how much cash is actually being circulated in the economy) on time, but this time, they delayed it for five days. That’s really unusual. Why? Turns out, China had a plan.

Instead of immediately showing their hand, they spent the week pumping and dumping their stock market—one day up 20%, the next down 10%, then up 6%, down 5%. Classic market manipulation. And they did all this right before releasing M1 on a Friday. What’s the big deal? Well, Monday is a U.S. holiday, so when China’s stock market opens, only their local investors can jump in first. Foreign investors (like the U.S.) have to wait until Tuesday. So basically, China’s people get first dibs on cheap stocks before the rest of the world can pile in. Sneaky, right?

Now, how does this affect crypto? Simple. The fact that China is increasing M1 means more liquidity—more cash flowing into the economy. And guess what? That’s bullish for Bitcoin and other cryptos. Over the next 3-6 months, we should see crypto performing well because this fresh liquidity has to go somewhere.

But let’s talk about today’s timeline (in UTC+6):

• 8 AM – 3 PM → Markets should be mostly green (bullish) because of China’s M1 release. Altcoins will benefit the most.
• 4 PM – 6 PM → A bit of a dip (red candles).
• 7 PM – 11 PM → Market goes into a chill mode (“woles” = relaxed), meaning no big moves.
• Midnight – 8 AM → Bitcoin tends to follow whatever happened earlier in the day.

Now, let’s zoom out a bit. There’s also a bigger economic war happening.

The U.S. knows that China is manipulating its currency. China keeps making its money weaker on purpose. Why? Because when China exports goods, they get paid in dollars. A weaker yuan means their exports become cheaper, making them more competitive in the global market. This is also why China has been buying a ton of gold—to prepare in case they get hit with sanctions.

The U.S. is fighting back in its own way. The Basel III Endgame is in play, which forces banks to hold more capital (in dollars) to prevent a crisis. But here’s the problem: This strengthens the dollar while draining liquidity from everywhere else. That means while the U.S. might avoid a financial collapse, a lot of other countries (especially those not aligned with the U.S.) could suffer major crises.

What about politics?

Oh man, things are getting spicy. Trump, of all people, is now trying to bring Russia back into the G7. Why? Probably to break up the growing China-Russia alliance. But China is standing firm. Their foreign minister literally said:

“If the U.S. is bent on suppressing China, then we have no choice but to play along to the end.”

Translation: If the U.S. keeps trying to mess with China, China is fully ready for an economic war.

And honestly, all this fighting over money and power? It’s kinda dumb. Even Elon Musk gets it—he’s like, “Why are we fighting over resources on Earth? Let’s go to Mars instead!” Makes sense, right? If Earth’s economy is too crowded, just go expand into space. Who knows, maybe there’s gold on Mars.

Final takeaway:

• Crypto looks bullish in the coming months thanks to China’s liquidity injection.
• Short-term, Bitcoin could pump hard next week.
• Today and tomorrow, altcoins will perform well.
• The U.S. is trying to control the dollar, but it might cause crises elsewhere.
• China and the U.S. are locked in an economic battle that will shake up global markets.

So, if you’re in crypto, strap in—things are about to get interesting.

Right now, Bitcoin is kind of on hold. There’s this thing with the PPI (Producer Price Index) going up, which normally signals inflation, and the DXY (Dollar Index) should go up too. But here’s the twist: even though PPI is rising, the DXY isn’t following suit. Usually, when inflation is up, the dollar strengthens, but the fact that the DXY is flat shows the economy isn’t really picking up.

Bitcoin is kind of waiting to see what happens with Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. Remember when he tried imposing tariffs, but it backfired? Turns out, Europe only raised their tariffs by 2.5%, which isn’t a huge deal. The main thing I’m seeing now is that Trump’s business strategy is to push other countries to buy weapons from the U.S. because that’s where he sees money coming in. He wants that cash flow back to the States. But even with that, gold prices are still climbing, and there’s a chance we’ll see a delayed inflation effect (thanks to things like the RRP—Reverse Repo Program).

Now, I’ll be honest, I don’t always understand the daily movements of the RRP, but it’s been trending down. Powell, the Fed chair, says there won’t be any more Quantitative Easing (QE), but when the Treasury does buy back debt, that’s basically QE in disguise. So, in the meantime, Bitcoin is just following these moves and reacting as expected.

Looking at the market timeline for today (UTC+6), it seems like there’s some volatility to expect:

• From 8 AM to 12 PM, it’s chill—nothing big happening.
• From 1 to 4 PM, we’ll see some green, likely because the People’s Bank of China won’t be pulling back their liquidity anymore.
• After that, from 4 to 6 PM, it could dip into red.
• But then from 6 to 10 PM, it should go back up, mainly due to positive retail sales in China and the Fed not seeing inflation affecting consumer buying power.
• Then, after 10 PM, it might drop again, and by 1 to 8 AM, it could rise again as the RRP falls.

Here’s the thing: If retail sales go up, I expect Bitcoin to rise too. If they drop, well, Bitcoin could rise even more. It’s a bit of a sweet spot, don’t you think?

Now, a lot of people think that if the Fed gets hawkish (tightens monetary policy), the dollar strengthens, and that means Bitcoin would drop, like it did in 2022. But here’s where it gets interesting—if the DXY goes up because of rising debt (not economic growth), Bitcoin might not drop. Why? Because rising debt means inflation that’s just waiting to happen.

Trump’s got this plan with tariffs aimed at China. He’s been saying that China manipulates its currency to keep its goods cheap on the global market, but the Chinese people aren’t supposed to know about it. If they did, they’d probably be angry about their wages being kept low. And then, imagine industries in the U.S. being wiped out because of cheap Chinese goods—it would make anyone mad, right? So, Trump’s pushing tariffs to get the U.S. manufacturing back in action.

Meanwhile, big players like Goldman Sachs are betting big on Ethereum. They’ve boosted their Ethereum ETF holdings by 2,000%, and the Bitcoin ETF is at $1.5 billion. These guys aren’t buying crypto for fun—they see it as the future. Ethereum is also getting ready for some big moves, with things like staking and stable USD systems. The infrastructure is really taking shape, and that’s why institutions are stacking up on ETH. Even Binance moved $1.4 billion USDC via the Ethereum network!

Lastly, Powell warned that if the M2 money supply keeps growing at a sharp rate, we’ll definitely see inflation. He wasn’t talking about the past—he’s saying it’s still going to rise, which is a big deal for the economy.

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Hope that helps! It’s a bit of a rollercoaster with all these factors influencing crypto, but at least now it makes a bit more sense.

“Hey bro, crazy day in crypto!”

Bitcoin just hit $98K, and inflation numbers (CPI & Core) are still climbing. That basically means inflation isn’t going down to 2% anytime soon. In fact, they might just shift the target to 3% instead, and if the U.S. does it, other countries will probably follow.

But here’s the weird part—CPI is up, but the U.S. dollar (DXY) is crashing. That’s a huge sign that the Fed’s strategy to control inflation isn’t working.

Market Timeline Today (UTC+6):

• 8 AM – 3 PM: Green market! Japan’s PPI (inflation at the producer level) is up from 3.9% to 4.2%, which means the Yen will inflate. The Bank of Japan actually wants this to keep their carry trade game strong.
• 4 PM – 6 PM: Still looking good, likely green. China’s M1 money supply data might come out today. U.S. CPI rising means China might take action to prevent too much investment flowing into the U.S.
• 7 PM – 10 PM: More green. U.S. PPI (producer inflation) is rising.
• 10 PM – Midnight: Watch out—market makers could mess around.
• 1 AM – 8 AM: RRP is dropping (basically, the Fed is quietly injecting liquidity into the market). This shows that the Fed isn’t truly independent. They’re pretending to keep rates high while still secretly printing money.

Bitcoin pumping while the dollar is crashing is like a truth serum for the financial world—it exposes the real value of money.

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Politics and the Bigger Picture

• Trump’s meeting with Putin and Saudi Arabia is all about isolating China. His strategy? Money over military. He doesn’t want China and Russia getting too close.
• Putin is now in a tight spot—stay loyal to China or betray them? Historically, Russia has played both sides. Even back in the day, they helped Mongolia split from China.
• Geopolitics is dirty. Instead of getting dragged into the drama, it’s smarter to just focus on making money for your family’s future.

The Media is a Distraction

Want peace of mind? Do the opposite of what the media tells you. When the media hypes something, be skeptical. When they spread FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt), it’s often just a distraction.

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What’s Up With the Fed?

• Powell: “We want to keep monetary policy tight.”
  Also Powell: Sneakily injects liquidity through RRP.
• If the Fed was truly independent, they’d be raising rates because inflation isn’t under 3% yet.
• But politics is in play. Powell is likely caving to Trump’s request to cut rates to help his election chances.
• The Fed is running out of tools. Normally, they should be doing QT (quantitative tightening), but instead, they’re cutting rates and reducing RRP to zero. That’s fake QT.

If Bitcoin was meant to crash, it would’ve already crashed hard—not just a small dip.

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Where’s the Real Liquidity?

Want to understand the markets? Forget the headlines. Just track these 4 things:

1. Debt levels
2. M2 money supply (total money circulating)
3. RRP (reverse repo liquidity)
4. RRR (bank reserve requirements)

At the end of the day, it’s all about whether the money supply is growing or shrinking.

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Final Thought:
Forget the noise. The only thing that matters is where the money is flowing. Stay focused, ignore the media circus, and happy days ahead. 🚀

Hey bro, so last night Powell gave a speech that sounded tough on inflation, but it was kinda fake. The proof? The US Dollar Index (DXY) actually dropped while he was talking. That usually means the market thinks he’s being soft on rate hikes. The key point was about M2 money supply increasing, which usually leads to inflation—so yeah, M2 will likely keep rising.

Tonight, we have the US inflation report (CPI), and China’s M1 money supply might be announced too.

Market flow today (in simple terms):

• Morning (8-10 AM UTC+6) → Chill vibes, market just waiting.
• Midday (11 AM – 3 PM) → Green because China’s central bank (PBOC) injects liquidity + Japan’s M3 money supply increased (even if just a bit).
• Late afternoon (4-5 PM) → Could turn red as the market preps for China’s M1 update (if it’s not delayed) + Asian markets closing.
• Evening (6-10 PM) → Green again if US CPI rises but core inflation stays the same.
• Late night (10 PM – midnight) → Red, because the big players (Market Makers) start their games.
• Overnight (midnight – 8 AM) → Green if the Fed’s overnight funding (RRP) drops below $70B, which hasn’t happened since 2021.

But hey, things could go wrong if China’s M1 gets delayed again. That’s out of my hands. What I can track is whether M1, CPI, and Core CPI are up or down. I personally think Bitcoin will rise today. If I’m wrong, my bad.

Now, let’s talk big picture. The US economy is weak—jobs data (NFP) is bad, job openings (JOLTS) are down, durable goods orders are weak, and factory orders are slow. There’s no money for the Fed to be truly “hawkish” (aggressive on rate hikes).

Then there’s geopolitics. Jordan’s king just said Arab nations will respond to the US over Trump’s Gaza plan. If a full war breaks out again, oil prices will spike—maybe as soon as this Saturday. Honestly, Israel’s been planning this from the start: wipe out Palestine, expand its territory, and if Arab countries attack and lose, Israel grows even bigger. The US and Germany have already sent bombs, ready to go. But in the end, we’ll see what fate has in store.

Historically, when Israel was founded, Saudi Arabia dared to embargo oil to the West, causing a crisis. But then the Saudi king got assassinated by his own nephew. Coincidence? Who knows. If Palestine gets pushed out, maybe Jordan and Egypt will strike back. From here, it’s unpredictable.

Saudi is the key player. If they ditch the US dollar and switch to China’s Yuan, America would collapse. But Saudi has a huge risk—the two holy cities (Mecca & Medina). Messing with the dollar could bring massive consequences for them. That’s why, for now, they’re just condemning things verbally without real action.

From a financial perspective, something big is coming. Gold prices are rising, and oil is getting ready for a bull run. But it’s still blurry.

If you look at history, big empires don’t fall from external enemies; they collapse from within:

• The Roman Empire dominated Europe and North Africa, but internal decay killed it.
• The British Empire controlled much of the world but was betrayed from within—by Israel, which helped build the US. Even Queen Elizabeth allegedly said Israel is a terror state.
• The Dutch Empire was a global trade powerhouse but collapsed due to insane corruption in the VOC.

Now, look at the US. Trump’s drama is just a distraction from their financial problems. Inflation will keep rising because the Fed printed way too much money during COVID—20% more dollars in circulation. Even in 2024, they printed another 4.2%. In 2025? At least 5% more, probably higher.

If an oil embargo happens, prices will spike, the Fed will have to cut interest rates, and inflation will skyrocket.

I seriously think something bigger than COVID is coming—maybe a Middle East war, maybe a Great Depression 2.0. One thing’s for sure: the big money is shifting to Asia. Just look at China’s economy.

Beyond that? Still blurry.

So, Bitcoin’s up—right on cue, even though China’s M1 (which is basically the cash and short-term deposits circulating in the economy) hasn’t surged yet. The U.S. market’s pretty chill today since there’s no major economic data dropping, but later tonight, Powell is speaking, and if he’s sounding dovish (meaning he’s hinting at lower interest rates), that could shake things up. Also, the Fed’s reverse repo (RRP) is dropping again, which is a good sign for liquidity.

Now, China’s economy is showing signs of recovery, but the real game-changer will be when M1 really takes off. If it does, Bitcoin could pump because more cash in circulation means more liquidity, and Bitcoin thrives on that. Right now, China is holding back on stimulus because they don’t want the U.S. to suck up their liquidity, and the U.S. is slapping tariffs to avoid the same thing happening in reverse. It’s a tug-of-war.

Looking at today’s market timeline (UTC+6):

• Morning (8-10 AM): Likely green, thanks to Trump’s aggressive tariffs.
• Midday (11 AM – 3 PM): Quiet, no major data.
• Afternoon (4-7 PM): Another green push if China’s M1 moves up.
• Evening (8-11 PM): Market’s in wait-and-see mode for Powell’s testimony.
• Late Night (12-8 AM): If Powell’s dovish and RRP keeps dropping, expect Bitcoin to rally.

Big picture: We’ve gone from trade wars to energy wars, to sanctions, to tariff battles, and maybe—just maybe—an actual war. The U.S. won’t give up its global dominance without a fight. Trump’s playing hardball, pushing his own version of a ‘new world order,’ and a lot of it revolves around the Middle East because, well… money follows oil. If Arab nations stay quiet, then there’s another plan in the works.

Meanwhile, gold just hit a record high after Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum—classic move. When uncertainty rises, people run to gold. Same logic applies to Bitcoin. If these tariffs don’t hit hard enough, the dollar (DXY) will drop, and Bitcoin could soar.

Final thought? Keep an eye on government spending—that’s the real tax. Whether they fund it through direct taxes or backdoor inflation, regular people foot the bill one way or another. And with all this chaos, the big players—like the Fed and Trump—are making moves to stay on top.

So yeah, buckle up. It’s gonna be a wild ride.

Trump is going all-in, reshuffling the global order, and guess where it all starts? Palestine. That’s why the world’s eyes are glued there—because the real key isn’t politics, it’s money. And the money? Oil. Unless the Arab nations stay quiet, expect things to play out differently.

Trump’s basically throwing gasoline on the fire—”Let all hell break loose” mode. The louder he gets, the more it feels like there’s a bigger plan in the shadows. But no matter how clever the game, higher forces always have the final say.

Now, the U.S. slapped tariffs on steel and aluminum, and surprise—gold hit a record high. Why? Because when things get messy, smart money runs to gold. It’s the same with Bitcoin. If tariffs don’t hit hard enough and the dollar (DXY) weakens, Bitcoin could pump.

Meanwhile, Australia just got a tariff exemption from Trump. And you know what that means? Other allies will want the same treatment. If too many get exemptions, the whole tariff game loses its bite. Again—good for Bitcoin.

On the Fed side, 57 economists now expect rate cuts this year (up from 56 last month). The takeaway? The U.S. is still printing money, but it’s losing its magic. The system is so chaotic that even endless money printing isn’t having the same effect. But make no mistake—Trump knows how to turn chaos into cash.

Then there’s the reverse repo (RRP) situation. The Fed just accepted zero billion in submissions (basically, banks aren’t parking cash there), and 41 institutions just pulled nearly $100 billion out of the system. Translation? Money’s moving, and liquidity is shifting—tonight could be interesting.

Final thought: Want to understand where the economy is really heading? Forget all the noise—just look at government spending. That’s the real tax. If they don’t take your money through direct taxes, they’ll take it through inflation or higher loan rates. Either way, you pay.

So yeah, the world’s in flux. Trade wars, energy battles, currency wars—it’s all connected. The U.S. won’t hand over its global power without a fight. And Bitcoin? It’s either a safe haven or a rollercoaster, depending on how this all plays out.