Good Morning. Here’s what’s going on in crypto today.
Morning Moves (8:00 AM – 3:00 PM UTC+6):
The market is expected to be chill, maybe even slightly positive (“hijau woles” as they say). Bitcoin could get a boost if China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) goes up. But even if the overall CPI drops, if the core CPI rises, it means inflation is still creeping up. So, keep an eye on that.
Afternoon to Evening (4:00 PM – 11:00 PM UTC+6):
Still pretty calm. Nothing major expected here.
Late Night to Early Morning (12:00 AM – 8:00 AM UTC+6):
Things might pick up a bit, especially with some economic data coming out of Japan. This could give the market a little nudge.
Saturday is expected to be super quiet—like, Hummer-level quiet. But there’s a big thing happening in the background: the U.S. Congress is about to approve a massive 2.5 trillion budget increase without cutting any spending. The key question is: will this flood the market with more money? If yes, that could mean inflation is on the way.
Sunday might see some early moves, but overall, it’s still a waiting game.
Nasdaq Going Crypto?
The Nasdaq is planning to introduce 24-hour trading by 2026. That’s a big deal—it’s like stocks are becoming more like crypto, trading around the clock. Some people are joking that by 2026, stocks will basically be crypto. But honestly, it’s not something to worry about too much. It’s just the market evolving.
Stocks, Yields, and Inflation:
Right now, both stock prices and bond yields are going up. Normally, stocks rise when the economy is doing well, but this time it’s different. Central banks are propping things up, making stocks and yields act as a hedge against inflation. Bitcoin? It’s just waiting for its turn to shine, especially if the U.S. rolls out another stimulus package. The key takeaway: it doesn’t matter what the stimulus is for—what matters is where the money comes from and how it affects the market.
Banks and Credit Cards:
Banks are in the business of making money, not being charitable. They profit from charging interest, especially on credit cards. Right now, credit card debt in the U.S. is hitting record highs, with a lot of people struggling to pay their bills. If the government caps credit card interest rates (say, at 10%), it might sound good, but it could actually hurt the poor more than the rich. Why? Because the rich pay off their balances in full every month, while the poor rely on credit to get by. Limiting access to credit could make life even harder for those already struggling, potentially leading to more crime and desperation.
The solution? Stimulus. Again.
China’s Deflation Problem:
China’s CPI just came in at -0.7%, which means prices are falling (deflation). Normally, this would be a red flag for the economy, but the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) isn’t panicking yet. They’re still holding back on stimulus, which suggests they think this deflation is manageable—for now.
The market is watching closely to see which major economy—the U.S. or China—will hit a recession first and which one will roll out stimulus first. That’s the next big trigger.
Europe’s Big Spending:
Europe is dropping a whopping 800 billion on defense. Is this a stimulus? Yes, kind of. Even though it’s not directly helping regular folks, pumping that much money into the economy can still drive up prices (hello, inflation). So, it’s like a hidden stimulus.
Everything’s connected. Inflation, deflation, stimulus, credit, and even geopolitics (like Europe’s defense spending) all play a role in how the market moves. Bitcoin and crypto are part of this dance, but they’re still waiting for their moment to take the lead. For now, it’s all about watching the data, waiting for stimulus, and seeing how the big players (like the U.S. and China) react.
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