If the US does go into a recession, Bitcoin might decouple from US stocks – 24 March 2025

Yo, here’s what’s up with crypto today.

The market’s gonna be a bit of a rollercoaster:

– Morning (8-10 AM UTC+6): Small dips, nothing crazy.

– Late morning to afternoon (11 AM – 3 PM): Likely green because Japan’s PMI is up, meaning the yen is weakening, and China’s central bank (PBOC) is injecting more money than it’s pulling out.

– Afternoon to early evening (4-6 PM): Back to red.

– Evening (7-10 PM): Green again as PMI numbers drop.

– Late night (10 PM – midnight): More red.

– Overnight (1-8 AM): Green again. The Fed is sounding less aggressive, and a key liquidity measure (RRP) is falling after spiking three days in a row, hitting 200 billion.

Last Friday was indecisive (Doji), Saturday was chill, and Sunday saw an early start to market moves. This happened after China announced some massive long-term debt, making investors think PBOC would inject more cash today.

China’s Market Moves:

China’s central bank (PBOC) is playing a tricky game. They announced 300 billion Yuan in ultra-long bonds, but then drained 346 billion Yuan from the market. It’s like they’re saying one thing and doing another. Frustrating, right? If the U.S. RRP rises, China tends to drain more than they inject, which could push Bitcoin into the red during 11 AM – 3 PM today.

Bitcoin has had two straight green weekly closes, but this week might be slower with some red days due to rising RRP towards the end of the month. Monday-Tuesday should be green, Wednesday-Thursday red, and Friday could be neutral. It won’t crash Bitcoin, but it could push liquidity into altcoins like Ethereum.

@cryptolipsync

Bitcoin might decouple from US stocks. Crypto market insights for today! We’re seeing a rollercoaster ride for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoins, with major moves influenced by China’s PBOC liquidity injections, U.S. Fed policy, and global economic trends. Will Bitcoin continue its bullish momentum, or will rising RRP push the market into the red? – Short-term: Expect volatility with China’s liquidity strategy and RRP fluctuations. – Mid-term: If the U.S. slows down, Europe might rise, impacting global capital flows. – Long-term: Bitcoin’s potential decoupling from U.S. stocks could change market dynamics. #fyp #CryptoMarket #CryptoUpdate #CryptoToday #CryptoNews #CryptoTrading #CryptoAnalysis #Bitcoin #Ethereum #Altcoins #BitcoinPrice #PBOC #FederalReserve #RRP #MorganStanley #Recession #BTC #EthereumPrice #StockMarket #Macroeconomics #Investing #TradingStrategy #Finance

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Oh, and that rumor about the U.S. selling gold to buy Bitcoin? Nah, I’m not buying it. Sounds too good to be true. Moving national gold reserves needs Congress approval, and that takes over six months of studies. If the U.S. President suddenly embraces Bitcoin after seeing it as a threat to the dollar before, something’s fishy. Imagine if big holders like Satoshi, China, or Michael Saylor sold at the same time—prices would drop, and people would just buy more.

Morgan Stanley’s Take on the Economy:

Morgan Stanley thinks all the recession fears might be overblown—for now. The Fed has acknowledged slower economic growth and higher inflation, but the worst might be behind us. However, Morgan Stanley warns that more bad economic data could still come, possibly later this year. They’re keeping an eye on March’s job data (NFP) and retail sales.

The U.S. economy might slow down, but Europe could pick up. Since the global economy is interconnected, a slowdown in the U.S. could drag others down too. If the U.S. struggles, its allies might too, while non-allied economies could benefit.

Bitcoin and a Potential U.S. Recession:

If the U.S. does go into a recession, Bitcoin might decouple from U.S. stocks. In that case, non-U.S. economies could shine, and Bitcoin could benefit. It’s a reminder to be grateful for not being tied too closely to the U.S. economy.