Hey, so here’s the deal with the crypto market today.
Morning (8-10 AM UTC+6):
The market’s looking a bit red (down) early on, which is pretty normal. No big surprises here.
Late Morning to Afternoon (11 AM – 3 PM UTC+6):
Things start turning green (up) because of some big news from China and Japan. Over the weekend, China made an announcement, and their Caixin PMI (a measure of economic health) came out strong. Japan’s Jibun Bank PMI also showed some positive signs. Plus, there’s talk about BlackRock making moves, which is always a big deal. Oh, and the Yen and Yuan are feeling the effects of inflation, so people are looking for safer bets.
Late Afternoon (4-6 PM UTC+6):
The market dips back into red territory. Just a little breather, I guess.
Evening (7-11 PM UTC+6):
Green again! This time, it’s because the US PMI (another economic health indicator) is rising, which suggests some stimulus might be coming soon. People are optimistic.
Late Night to Early Morning (11 PM – 8 AM UTC+6):
The market goes red overnight, but then turns green again early in the morning because of a drop in the RRP (Reverse Repo Rate). This means there’s more money circulating, which is usually good for markets.
Now, let’s talk fundamentals. Some people argue fundamentals don’t matter, but look at the bigger picture: M2 money supply is up, interest rates are still at 4.5%, and RRP is heading to zero. These aren’t just random numbers—they tell us where the market is heading. Fundamentals drive the market, while technical analysis helps with timing. You need both. If you ignore one, you’re flying blind.
Oh, and check this out—Japan’s 30-year government bond yield just hit 2.365%, the highest since 2008. What does that mean? Investors are piling into bonds to protect themselves from inflation, and the Japanese government clearly needs cash to keep their economy running. Long-term bonds rising like this screams economic desperation.
China’s Caixin PMI is predicted to go up, which usually means stronger economic activity there. Meanwhile, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to dip. Since China and the US dominate global trade, this creates an interesting dynamic—when one rises, the other often falls.
So why do I think Monday will be green?
1. The Yen is weakening because Japan’s bond yields are rising.
2. China’s economy is getting a boost from the PBOC (China’s central bank).
3. The US dollar index (DXY) is dropping as manufacturing slows, but the Fed can’t step in yet because their debt ceiling issue isn’t resolved.
4. The RRP is dropping, which means more liquidity in the market.
The Big Question. Consumer confidence is down, retail sales are down, factory orders are down… so why are companies spending more? Why is the PMI up? It’s because they’re anticipating stimulus. They’re buying now before prices go up due to inflation. It’s like they know something’s coming.
Also, remember this: if Sunday’s market makes an early move (either up or down), Monday usually follows the trend. If Sunday is red, Monday could be worse. But if Sunday is neutral or green, Monday should be solid. Based on the factory spending trend, I’m betting on a green Monday—not because of real demand, but because investors are getting ahead of the game. Plus, with RRP falling, there will be more cash floating around.
So, there you have it! A mix of data, anticipation, and a little bit of market psychology. What do you think?
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