So, today’s crypto market is expected to be a bit of a rollercoaster. In the morning (8-10 AM UTC+6), we might see some red—people selling off. But then, from 11 AM to 3 PM, things should turn green. Why? Because China’s central bank (PBOC) just injected a massive amount of money into the market without withdrawing any, which could mean they anticipated the U.S. reverse repo (RRP) would drop below 100 billion. Basically, when there’s more liquidity, Bitcoin tends to go up.
Then, around 4-6 PM, we might see another dip. But from 7-10 PM, it should bounce back. U.S. housing starts went up, but the dollar index (DXY) fell, which is a weird mix. The reason? A key housing confidence index (NAHB) dropped yesterday, signaling that money isn’t flowing into real estate as expected. Also, the U.S. formally recognizing Crimea as Russian territory might cause oil prices to drop, since Russia is one of the biggest oil exporters. Lower oil = lower inflation concerns.
From 10 PM to midnight, expect another dip—maybe some market manipulation by big players like Jane Street. But overnight (1-8 AM), the RRP is expected to drop again, which could mean more liquidity flowing in, pushing Bitcoin up.
Bitcoin closing prediction: Green. With retail sales increasing and DXY falling as expected, Bitcoin could push up to 84K.
Forget all those doomsday predictions—no World War III, no Great Depression 2.0, and no real U.S. recession. That’s actually great news for Bitcoin. Why? Because the U.S. has basically chosen inflation over economic collapse. Higher inflation means more money floating around, and some of it ends up in crypto.
Meanwhile, Standard Chartered is questioning Ethereum’s future. Their 2025 prediction for ETH is 4,000, but they’re worried that Layer 2 solutions (like Arbitrum and Base) are taking away too much of Ethereum’s value. If most transactions are happening on Layer 2s, what’s the point of using Ethereum itself? Makes sense, right? Even Vitalik needs to focus more on fixing this instead of, well, whatever else he’s up to.
Here’s the reality check:
25% of households are barely making ends meet.
Minimum wage earners? Their salaries get eaten up by rent, food, and healthcare.
A lot of spending is done on credit cards, BNPL (buy now, pay later), and loans.
The real issue isn’t just individuals struggling—it’s a global problem. If the U.S. economy is feeling the squeeze, so will other countries with similar unemployment rates (above 4%). Governments are trying to fix this by offering more debt access, but that’s like putting a Band-Aid on a broken bone. The cycle continues, and if too many people give up on holding dollars, inflation spikes.
Gold and Bitcoin are the safety nets. If you don’t have either, you’re basically just someone else’s exit liquidity.
The war in Yemen and the broken ceasefire in Israel-Palestine are heating up. If this escalates to Iran, things could get even messier. Interestingly, Trump seems to be giving Russia everything they want—recognizing Crimea, shifting positions on Ukraine. But will Putin return the favor and help Iran? Probably not.
What does all this mean for Bitcoin? Safe-haven assets like gold are soaring, China is quietly devaluing the Yuan, and the U.S. can’t afford a recession. This all points to continued inflation, which historically benefits Bitcoin.
The U.S. economy is built on debt. GDP growth looks good on paper, but if debt is rising just as fast (or faster), it’s like getting a 5% raise while your grocery bill jumps 30%—it doesn’t really help.
Meanwhile, oil prices are creeping up due to tensions in the Middle East. Trump, as usual, is making things unpredictable. If oil hits 80 per barrel, the dollar index (DXY) could surge, shaking up markets again.
He’s playing a high-stakes game, and it’s hard to tell whether his calls to Putin are meant to stabilize things or just stir the pot even more.
Bitcoin’s path depends on three key things:
Gold prices continuing to rise
China’s ongoing currency devaluation
The U.S. economy avoiding a real recession
Oh, and global money supply (M2) is set to increase, which means more liquidity everywhere. Indonesia might have the option to redenominate its currency, but not all countries have that luxury.
As for the wars? That’s out of our hands, and it’s heartbreaking to see conflicts happening, especially during sacred times. Let’s hope for peace.
So, yeah, it’s a lot to take in. But the bottom line is: inflation is here, wars are complicating things, and crypto is still standing strong. Let’s just hope things calm down soon, especially for places like Palestine, which has been suffering for way too long.
But when it comes to markets, one thing’s clear:
Cash is still king, but gold and Bitcoin are the insurance policies.
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