Good morning! Let’s talk about what’s happening in the crypto market today. Here’s the breakdown:
Early Morning (8-10 AM UTC+6): The market might dip a bit. This is because of some normal market adjustments. Think of it like the market waking up and stretching before the real action begins.
Late Morning to Afternoon (11 AM – 3 PM UTC+6): Things are expected to turn green. Why? Because big players like the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) have decided to pause their tightening policies. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) also kept its prime loan rate steady at 3.10%, which is like saying, “We’re not tightening the money supply, so liquidity is still flowing.” This is good for Bitcoin because more liquidity in the system often means more money flowing into crypto.
Late Afternoon (4-6 PM UTC+6): The market might dip again. Yesterday, it didn’t dip because the BoJ made some comments that reassured investors. But today, without that reassurance, the market could pull back a bit.
Evening (7-10 PM UTC+6): Green again! Why? Because of some U.S. economic data. Claims for unemployment benefits are expected to rise, and existing home sales are predicted to drop. When unemployment claims go up, it’s a sign that the economy might be slowing down, which could weaken the U.S. dollar (DXY). A weaker dollar often means Bitcoin goes up because investors look for alternatives. Also, if home sales drop, it’s another sign of economic slowing, which could push Bitcoin higher.
Late Night (10 PM – 12 AM UTC+6): The market might dip again. This is often due to market makers (big players who control liquidity) adjusting their positions. Sometimes they delay their moves, so the dip might not happen exactly on time, but it’s likely to come.
Overnight (1-8 AM UTC+6): The U.S. and China are the big players here. The U.S. has slowed its Quantitative Tightening (QT) from 25 billion a month to just 5 billion. That’s an 80% reduction! It’s like the Fed is pretending to tighten but isn’t really doing much. Meanwhile, China is keeping its prime loan rate steady, which is like saying, “We’re not tightening either.” This is good for Bitcoin because it means more money is circulating in the global economy, and Bitcoin tends to rise when liquidity increases.
Why does all this matter for Bitcoin?
Well, Bitcoin is like a sponge for global liquidity. When central banks like the Fed and PBOC pump money into the system or slow down their tightening, more money flows into assets like Bitcoin. The U.S. and China are the two biggest economies in the world, so what they do has a huge impact on global liquidity. Smaller economies, like Vietnam, don’t really move the needle for Bitcoin because their liquidity is too small.
Tonight, we’ll get more U.S. economic data, like unemployment claims and home sales. If unemployment claims rise, it’s a sign that more people are struggling, which could weaken the dollar and push Bitcoin higher. If home sales drop, it’s another sign of economic slowing, which could also boost Bitcoin. On the other hand, if home sales rise, it could strengthen the dollar and put some pressure on Bitcoin.
The Fed and PBOC are playing a delicate game. They’re trying to control inflation without crashing the economy. By slowing down QT and keeping interest rates steady, they’re essentially keeping the money taps open. This is great for Bitcoin because it thrives in an environment where liquidity is high and the dollar is weak.
Global liquidity is one giant pool, and Bitcoin swims in it. If more money is flowing, Bitcoin floats higher.
So, if you’re watching Bitcoin today, keep an eye on the U.S. dollar (DXY) and global liquidity. When liquidity rises, Bitcoin tends to rise with it. And with the Fed and PBOC both easing up, the stage is set for Bitcoin to keep climbing.
Last night, even with RRP rising sharply, Bitcoin barely cared and shot up to 86K. So if RRP drops again, why would Bitcoin go down? It doesn’t make sense.
Today’s crypto market is like a seesaw, influenced by big moves from the Fed, PBOC, and U.S. economic data. More liquidity = good for Bitcoin. Keep an eye on the dollar and global money flow!
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