Bitcoin’s moment might be closer than people think. Just follow the money not the headlines – 17 April 2025

So, first off — people are still hoping that Powell (the head of the Fed) will suddenly go soft and ease interest rates. But come on, that’s like expecting a finance minister to say, “Yeah, we’re broke.” Never happens. They always say the usual stuff: “cash is stable, debt is under control, reserves are high,” blah blah blah.

But here’s the interesting part — the Fed’s overnight money stash (RRP) has dropped massively, down to just $55 billion. That’s super low. It’s like the Fed’s emergency drawer is almost empty. And Powell? His speech last night came off all tough and hawkish… but honestly, it felt fake. Like a poker bluff — more bark than bite. It was more about sounding strong than being strong.

What’s this doing to global currencies?

Well, China’s yuan is weakening, and the Japanese yen is following. Why? Because everyone’s looking at that same RRP number and saying, “Whoa, liquidity’s getting tight.” China even tried to inject more money into the system earlier this week, and Japan chimed in too. Everyone’s trying to keep things from freezing up.

Today’s big moment? If the RRP hits zero, Bitcoin could explode upward. If it bounces back up, then we’re still in “wait and see” mode. But from what I see, the setup’s there for a green day — I mean Bitcoin might finally break out.

Retail Sales also came in hot: +1.4%.

That’s… surprisingly strong. People are still spending like there’s no tomorrow. But here’s the catch — they’re probably just swiping credit cards. Prices are high, interest rates are brutal, and at some point, all that card debt is going to hit a wall. Expect to see a spike in credit delinquencies and ballooning interest payments soon.

But here’s what made me suspicious: even though the retail numbers looked strong, the dollar (DXY) didn’t move. Bitcoin didn’t react either. That’s a huge red flag — it tells me the numbers might not reflect reality. We saw this kind of thing before under Biden — data made to look good on paper, but the truth didn’t match.

So… is it back to data games again?

If so, here’s the cheat code: just inverse the data. If it says good, assume bad.

Oh, and then there’s Boeing…

Yeah, major hit. China just cancelled orders for 8,830 planes over the next 20 years — all because of Trump’s tariffs. That’s a $1.6 million job loss hit, and Boeing’s stock immediately tanked 3.5%. Total wipeout in market cap.

It’s like — are we really ready to cut ties with China for real? If this keeps up, expect someone to quietly make a call and say, “Hey… let’s talk.” Ego only goes so far when real money is bleeding.

Speaking of money, Goldman Sachs just dropped a bomb.

They’re saying if US-China financial relations break down completely, American investors might have to pull $800 billion out of Chinese stocks. And Chinese investors? They might dump $1.7 trillion in US assets. Imagine the panic-selling. US stocks, bonds, even stuff in Hong Kong — all could get hammered. It would take months to unwind all that.

Tonight’s highlight? Housing Starts.

That’s basically the number of new homes being built. If that number goes up, normally the dollar (DXY) goes up too — it means the economy’s humming. But the forecast is for a drop.

Here’s the twist — I think the data might actually surprise us and go up. But even if it goes up and the dollar doesn’t rise? That’s a clear sign the market isn’t buying the story anymore. And if the data does drop as predicted, the dollar could tank even harder.

Bottom line?

The Fed’s running low on ammo, the market smells the bluff, and China’s pulling economic punches. If DXY weakens and liquidity stays tight, Bitcoin’s moment might be closer than people think. Just follow the money — not the headlines.