So, if you’re watching the charts, expect the market to be mostly red from 8 AM to 11 PM (UTC+6). After that, from 1 AM to 8 AM, things should turn green. But don’t get too excited—it’s not some massive bullish rally. The green movement is mostly because the Reverse Repo (RRP) has shot up to 200 billion, so it’s basically a short-term boost, a “jumpstart” effect.
Now, about that candle pattern—yesterday’s close was a doji (basically, a candle that signals indecision). When you see two dojis in a row, it usually means a stronger reversal is coming. If the trend was going up, a doji could mean it’s about to go down, and vice versa. Since there’s no major economic data release today, we’ll likely see another slow, mostly red day.
QT Might Be Ending Soon
There’s this guy, E.J. Antoni, Ph.D., who’s been saying that the shrinking of the Fed’s balance sheet (aka Quantitative Tightening or QT) was nearing its limit. And guess what? The Fed just announced they’re slowing down QT even more starting April. Does this mean QT is about to end completely? Probably. But when exactly? That’s the big question. The key signal to watch is when RRP hits zero. Could that happen in early April? Next week? No one knows for sure. We just wait and see.
China, Investments & The Bigger Macro Play
Now, a lot of people took my tweet about China the wrong way. I wasn’t comparing China’s investments to other countries’. I was making a point—we don’t have the luxury of choosing investors. We’re not some major global power or an ally that gets priority treatment.
Right now, the U.S. wants factories to move back home. They’re even pressuring their allies with tariff threats to invest in America instead. That’s bad news for us. If we shut out Chinese investment, we could end up in a crisis with no one left to fund us. Look at Japan—they invested heavily in us back in the day, but that was mainly because Western countries didn’t want to. And after decades of investment, we still don’t have our own major car brand.
Now, imagine if Japan was our only investor. Then comes Trump, pushing Japanese investors (like Masayoshi Son) to pump money into the U.S. while Japan itself is struggling with liquidity. Who do you think gets left behind? Us.
We have to be realistic. We’re a third-world country, not some powerhouse. We’re just a market. China went through the same struggle in the 70s. Back then, the U.S. invested in China just to keep them from aligning with Russia. They got mocked for making knockoff goods, labeled “low quality.” But now? They dominate every price tier, from street food to high-end Wagyu steak.
That’s why I always say—don’t focus too much on the micro stuff. The people at the top don’t care about our struggles, they just make sure we keep surviving. The global economic game is brutal, and if we want to be “independent,” it means we’re not a priority. We weren’t a colony of a commonwealth, we were exploited colonies. Our fight isn’t from zero—it’s from minus.
So instead of blaming investors, we should be smart about grabbing liquidity from China. That’s the real way to turn the tables.
One last thing—Chinese state media just published an article saying Bitcoin has investment value. That’s a big deal. When the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) makes a statement like that, it’s never random. We all know what’s coming next.
The debate about Bitcoin’s identity isn’t over. Some argue it’s a risky asset because of its crazy price swings. But if you look at how Bitcoin’s price moves opposite to the U.S. dollar’s strength, it actually acts like a safe-haven asset, a hedge against the dollar.
Stay sharp. The next few weeks will be interesting.
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.