Bro, every data point has weight, and not all are equal.”
Think of it this way: Weekly jobless claims (Claim Data) don’t shake the market like Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) because NFP only comes out once a month. Bigger gap = bigger impact. When NFP drops, expect Bitcoin to react hard.
Every month, I break down the same key economic indicators to predict inflation early. Why? Because inflation predictions lead to FOMC decisions. That’s the game.
Now, we already have the data we need for next week’s inflation prediction:
- Retail sales are down
- Factory orders down
- Durable goods orders down
- Job openings down
- But private payrolls (ADP) are up
So where’s NFP heading? If you analyze the 4P’s (Jobs, Unemployment, Housing, and Money Printing), the conclusion is clear:
Jobs down + Unemployment up + Housing prices up + Less money printing = Inflation up next week
Bitcoin & Inflation: The Real Relationship
Bitcoin is a hedge against inflation. If a country announces rising inflation, Bitcoin usually pumps—unless that country raises interest rates.
Short term? Bitcoin might struggle.
Long term? Bitcoin wins.
Why? Because interest rates can’t rise forever.
You can’t go from eating salmon to eating canned sardines forever.
Bitcoin’s fuel? Newly printed money—not from economic growth, but from the economy itself. So if Bitcoin can rise under “normal” conditions, imagine what happens when things start breaking.
Crypto Market Predictions (UTC+6 Timezone)
- 8-10 AM: Green. Japan’s inflation numbers are up, so crypto follows.
- 11-3 PM: Green. China’s central bank (PBOC) injecting liquidity.
- 4-6 PM: Red. Asian markets close, bringing short-term selling.
- 6-10 PM: Green. NFP drops, dollar weakens, Bitcoin pumps.
- 10-12 AM: Volatile (Wicky). Unmich Consumer Sentiment up + China’s USD reserves fall. Normally bullish, but expect manipulation from Jane Street.
- 1-8 AM: Green. Reverse Repo (RRP) barely dropped, but I expect a full crash soon.
Why? Trump is softening on rate cuts. That means the Fed secretly promised something behind the scenes—probably increasing money supply while keeping rates on hold. That’s done by draining RRP to zero instead of printing outright.
The Bigger Picture: What’s the U.S. Doing?
Trump wants stimulus (more money in circulation), but the Fed won’t cut rates. Instead, they’ll find other ways to keep the economy “alive” without openly admitting they’re printing money.
How?
- Cut down on government spending (immigration cuts, foreign aid reductions, troop withdrawals).
- Reduce the number of people “holding” dollars (forcing other countries to spend their reserves).
- Maintain dollar liquidity without flooding the market.
It’s a delicate balance. But in the end, if NFP is down, inflation is up, and the dollar tanks (DXY down).
Gold is Mooning – Here’s Why
Both UBS and Citi just raised their gold price forecasts to $3,000/oz.
- UBS: Gold will rise due to rate cuts, uncertainty, and central bank buying.
- Citi: Trade wars, de-dollarization under Trump, and geopolitical risks will push gold up.
Right now, gold is at $2,870/oz, already hitting new highs. The trend is clear—gold is in a bull market and isn’t slowing down.
This isn’t a bank-run era, this is a gold-run era.
Gold is telling you: “Your money is losing value.”
If global liquidity is coming from failing economies, inflation will explode into double digits. And when that happens, gold hits $3,000+.
What About Crypto?
USDT, USDC, and other stablecoins = digital dollars
If the U.S. can speed up adoption, the Fed will support it.
Meaning?
- More people worldwide will hold digital dollars (Thailand already holds more USDT than Thai Baht).
- This helps the U.S. offload inflation to other countries.
- It’s actually bullish for crypto because it expands the market cap.
Stablecoins are just for trading crypto—you can’t buy street food with USDT.
But the bigger their adoption, the bigger the crypto market grows.
Bottom line:
- Bitcoin reacts to inflation data.
- The U.S. is playing a game of stealth money printing.
- Gold is screaming “cash is trash.”
- Stablecoins are feeding the crypto bull run.
See the bigger picture.
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