So, here’s the vibe on crypto today.
Imagine waking up and checking the charts in the UTC+6 time zone. Between 8 AM and 3 PM, it’s looking pretty green—prices rising. Why? A few reasons. The U.S. reversed repo (RRP) rate is dropping, which means money is becoming more available. Over in Japan, the Yen isn’t tanking below 145, which shows the Bank of Japan is quietly pumping money into the system. Same story with China—its currency, the Yuan, is weakening, and their central bank (PBOC) is also injecting liquidity.
But then—between 4 PM and 6 PM—red flags. Expect a dip. It’s almost guaranteed there’s going to be some retaliatory announcement in response to Trump’s trade moves.
From 7 PM to 11 PM, things cool off again. The market chills, there’s no new data coming out, and Bitcoin tends to respond calmly during this window.
At midnight to 1 AM, prices dip again. Then finally, from 2 AM to 8 AM, we’re back in the green. That’s because RRP dropped below 100 billion—another sign of liquidity flowing.
The U.S. seems to be playing a game here, and Trump’s the main actor. He’s trying to force the market into dropping interest rates. How? By starting tariff wars to shake up confidence, making China offload U.S. bonds, and pressuring the Fed into loosening monetary policy.
But here’s the irony—he’s mad when China retaliates, even though the U.S. threw the first punch. And while all this drama unfolds, U.S. stocks are the ones taking the hit, not China’s. Bond yields were supposed to drop, but instead they shot up to over 4.1% again.
If the dollar stays strong, inflation doesn’t just magically drop. Why? Because global trade relies on the dollar. When the dollar is expensive, everything else feels more expensive too, especially for countries buying oil or U.S.-made goods. So who’s going to buy all that stuff?
The big lever? The DXY—the dollar index.
If DXY goes down, it means there’s more dollars circulating. More liquidity means risk assets like Bitcoin get a boost. But DXY doesn’t move in a vacuum—it sucks value from other currencies. If other currencies keep falling, there’s less juice for the dollar to “steal,” and that’s where things get tricky.
And for regular folks like us with small amounts of money? Worrying too much won’t help. But imagine being a Bitcoin holder who hates Trump, voted for him, and now regrets it. It’s a wild emotional ride. But hey, HODLing is tough. If it were easy, people wouldn’t be selling their houses or borrowing community money to buy crypto at the top. Real talk.
Now, here’s a twist on central banks:
They’re not just printing money for fun. For example, China’s central bank is backing up its falling stock market, even borrowing from sovereign wealth funds to do so. That’s not just a stimulus program—it’s about where the money comes from.
And when central banks do increase money supply, Bitcoin usually feels it. U.S. money injections trigger a quick reaction in crypto. But China’s? It’s slower. Why? Because buying Bitcoin in China is still technically not allowed, so people have to get creative—using DEXs, backdoor platforms, or asking relatives abroad.
Another thing to watch: the Japanese Yen.
If the Yen doesn’t crash past 145 per dollar, it means Japan is quietly printing money to support its economy and keep the carry trade flowing. That’s inflationary. And inflation usually pushes people toward assets like Bitcoin as a hedge.
Now here’s the part I’m watching for—but I have no clue when it’ll drop:
If China ever decides to officially weaken its currency, it could trigger a massive shift. They’re sitting on 60 trillion in deposits—three times more than the U.S. If that capital gets unleashed? It would be wild. We’ve seen it before. In 2015–2016, that kind of move sent Bitcoin from 200 to 20,000.
And about defense spending?
Yup, that’s a stimulus too. When the U.S. increases military budgets, they’re basically raising money by selling government bonds. That debt is backed by—you guessed it—the everyday person, through higher prices on goods and housing. People go along with it because it’s “for the country,” and no one really knows where the money goes since the military budget isn’t publicly audited.
In contrast, Bitcoin? It’s transparent. Everyone can see where the money flows.
So, in a world where governments need enemies to justify printing more money for defense, Bitcoin quietly stands as the honest outsider, saying, “Here’s where your money is. No drama, just data.”