So, the U.S. economy is showing some mixed signals—housing starts are down, but building permits are up, meaning people are still planning to build. The Fed had a meeting (which probably didn’t say anything surprising), and overall, the economic outlook is looking a bit better.
Meanwhile, China just announced a fuel subsidy, which is a big deal. They’re cutting gasoline and diesel prices for the first time in 2025. But here’s the catch—cheaper fuel doesn’t mean cheaper goods. Businesses won’t just lower their prices because their costs go down. They’ll keep charging as much as they can.
And then there’s the bigger picture: If China is really doing this subsidy, plus removing investment restrictions, the market should have reacted by now. But it hasn’t. So, where’s the money? Are we just watching another episode of Chinese Drama: Financial Edition?
What’s happening in the markets today?
Here’s the expected market rhythm for the day:
Morning (8-10 AM UTC+6): Calm before the storm—no major moves yet.
Late morning to early afternoon (11 AM – 3 PM): China’s central bank (PBOC) might inject liquidity, but they need to keep the Yen weak to stay competitive.
Afternoon (4-6 PM): Asian markets close, and South Korean traders might start shorting before the U.S. market opens.
Evening (7-10 PM): Market likely goes green due to economic data and China’s potential loan rate decision.
Late night (10 PM – 12 AM): Some big players (like Jane Street) might short the market.
Overnight (1-8 AM): Bitcoin should stay up, but it might slow down between 4-6 AM when the U.S. market is closed.
Oh, and China is announcing its loan interest rate soon—currently at 3.1%, which is super low. If they keep it there or lower it, Bitcoin will stay bullish. If they somehow raise it (which is unlikely), Bitcoin could take a hit.
The bigger geopolitical game
Trump is going full crypto-friendly mode because he sees an opportunity to take liquidity from China.
China, on the other hand, is cleaning out foreign investments, stockpiling gold, banning crypto (but still monitoring it through Hong Kong), and setting up stimulus plans.
The U.S. is trying to keep its economy looking strong, delaying debt ceiling decisions, cutting costs, and subtly keeping an eye on Bitcoin.
Essentially, Bitcoin is becoming the center of global liquidity, a safe haven for people in both China and the U.S. If you’re still bearish on Bitcoin, are you really sure?
Final thoughts
Big asset managers have their Bitcoin cost basis at $95K. You think they’ll just sit there and let it drop? No way. They’re going to manage the market to avoid losses. So, even if Bitcoin dips, there’s a safety net.
The real question is: Who wins this game? China? The U.S.? Bitcoin itself? Either way, things are about to get interesting.
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