So, this morning, I was hoping for a “green Monday,” meaning a good start for the crypto market. But turns out, it only made a small move up before dropping again—just a little teaser. This actually signals a shift in liquidity. There’s also an inverse doji, which hints at a possible trend change.
Now, Japan’s GDP data came out strong, but since yesterday was a holiday, that money hasn’t flowed into the market yet. Today, it will, especially from Asia and the US. Later tonight, we have an important US housing market report (NAHB), which could shake things up.
Market Timeline (UTC+6):
- 8-10 AM – Nothing much happening, just chilling.
- 11 AM – 3 PM – Market should turn green because Xi Jinping is meeting with business leaders. In China, business is all about money, not loyalty.
- 4-6 PM – Expect a dip as the Korean market sells off.
- 7-11 PM – Back to green, thanks to US economic data.
- 12-4 AM – Could go red again, especially with Trump speaking. Watch how the US dollar (DXY) reacts.
- 5-8 AM – Green again as liquidity shifts.
The Big Picture:
Markets move based on fundamentals (big trends) and daily news (short-term price moves). Right now, inflation isn’t going down—it’s actually going up. Why? Because there’s not enough liquidity (money flow), and that can’t last forever. Governments either have to pump more money in or face serious problems like recession or even war.
Bitcoin is just waiting. Instead of expecting BTC to skyrocket, it’s likely that money will move into altcoins first—because it’s easier to push an altcoin up by 20% than BTC. Ethereum has already started testing liquidity, which is a clue.
Why Does the NAHB Report Matter?
NAHB tracks the US housing market, and housing is a big deal because it directly affects inflation. The US government funds itself largely through its people, and for most people, their biggest financial goal is owning a home. That’s why politicians always promise easier access to housing during elections.
Here’s the trick: when house prices go up, inflation goes up. Why? Because the government uses rising home prices as an excuse to print more money (M2 supply). This only happens in the US, though—don’t apply this logic to countries like Thailand.
If NAHB data is strong, it means inflation is rising, which means more money printing. That’s bullish for Bitcoin.
Hedge Funds Are Buying Raw Materials
Big players just made their fastest move in 4 years to buy materials like timber, oil, and metals. What does this mean?
- Are they preparing for a Taiwan war? Maybe.
- Are we heading toward another Great Depression? No idea.
- Will Bitcoin rise? Yes.
Why? Because in a crisis, gold usually goes up. But since gold can be sanctioned by the US, investors need an alternative—Bitcoin. Bitcoin is becoming the go-to hedge against inflation, though daily price moves will still be volatile.
China’s Shift: “Get Rich First”
President Xi just gave the green light for Chinese companies to make money first before worrying about the greater good. This is a big deal because before, if you got rich in China without government approval, you could get investigated.
Now, Xi is basically saying, “Bring your money back home, we won’t seize it.” That’s why Jack Ma is back in the spotlight. This is similar to a tax amnesty, where China increases its money supply without directly printing more cash.
What does this mean for Bitcoin? More liquidity in the market means more inflation, and inflation tends to push BTC higher. However, expect price swings due to trading activities.
Bottom line: Bitcoin is in a long-term uptrend because of inflation, but the daily moves will be choppy due to news and data releases.
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