So, Bitcoin’s up—right on cue, even though China’s M1 (which is basically the cash and short-term deposits circulating in the economy) hasn’t surged yet. The U.S. market’s pretty chill today since there’s no major economic data dropping, but later tonight, Powell is speaking, and if he’s sounding dovish (meaning he’s hinting at lower interest rates), that could shake things up. Also, the Fed’s reverse repo (RRP) is dropping again, which is a good sign for liquidity.
Now, China’s economy is showing signs of recovery, but the real game-changer will be when M1 really takes off. If it does, Bitcoin could pump because more cash in circulation means more liquidity, and Bitcoin thrives on that. Right now, China is holding back on stimulus because they don’t want the U.S. to suck up their liquidity, and the U.S. is slapping tariffs to avoid the same thing happening in reverse. It’s a tug-of-war.
Looking at today’s market timeline (UTC+6):
- Morning (8-10 AM): Likely green, thanks to Trump’s aggressive tariffs.
- Midday (11 AM – 3 PM): Quiet, no major data.
- Afternoon (4-7 PM): Another green push if China’s M1 moves up.
- Evening (8-11 PM): Market’s in wait-and-see mode for Powell’s testimony.
- Late Night (12-8 AM): If Powell’s dovish and RRP keeps dropping, expect Bitcoin to rally.
Big picture: We’ve gone from trade wars to energy wars, to sanctions, to tariff battles, and maybe—just maybe—an actual war. The U.S. won’t give up its global dominance without a fight. Trump’s playing hardball, pushing his own version of a ‘new world order,’ and a lot of it revolves around the Middle East because, well… money follows oil. If Arab nations stay quiet, then there’s another plan in the works.
Meanwhile, gold just hit a record high after Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum—classic move. When uncertainty rises, people run to gold. Same logic applies to Bitcoin. If these tariffs don’t hit hard enough, the dollar (DXY) will drop, and Bitcoin could soar.
Final thought? Keep an eye on government spending—that’s the real tax. Whether they fund it through direct taxes or backdoor inflation, regular people foot the bill one way or another. And with all this chaos, the big players—like the Fed and Trump—are making moves to stay on top.
So yeah, buckle up. It’s gonna be a wild ride.
Trump is going all-in, reshuffling the global order, and guess where it all starts? Palestine. That’s why the world’s eyes are glued there—because the real key isn’t politics, it’s money. And the money? Oil. Unless the Arab nations stay quiet, expect things to play out differently.
Trump’s basically throwing gasoline on the fire—”Let all hell break loose” mode. The louder he gets, the more it feels like there’s a bigger plan in the shadows. But no matter how clever the game, higher forces always have the final say.
Now, the U.S. slapped tariffs on steel and aluminum, and surprise—gold hit a record high. Why? Because when things get messy, smart money runs to gold. It’s the same with Bitcoin. If tariffs don’t hit hard enough and the dollar (DXY) weakens, Bitcoin could pump.
Meanwhile, Australia just got a tariff exemption from Trump. And you know what that means? Other allies will want the same treatment. If too many get exemptions, the whole tariff game loses its bite. Again—good for Bitcoin.
On the Fed side, 57 economists now expect rate cuts this year (up from 56 last month). The takeaway? The U.S. is still printing money, but it’s losing its magic. The system is so chaotic that even endless money printing isn’t having the same effect. But make no mistake—Trump knows how to turn chaos into cash.
Then there’s the reverse repo (RRP) situation. The Fed just accepted zero billion in submissions (basically, banks aren’t parking cash there), and 41 institutions just pulled nearly $100 billion out of the system. Translation? Money’s moving, and liquidity is shifting—tonight could be interesting.
Final thought: Want to understand where the economy is really heading? Forget all the noise—just look at government spending. That’s the real tax. If they don’t take your money through direct taxes, they’ll take it through inflation or higher loan rates. Either way, you pay.
So yeah, the world’s in flux. Trade wars, energy battles, currency wars—it’s all connected. The U.S. won’t hand over its global power without a fight. And Bitcoin? It’s either a safe haven or a rollercoaster, depending on how this all plays out.
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