Today’s market Probably red But the real action is in bank stability, Bitcoin moves, and China’s long game – 16 Feb 2025 – Crypto Market Today

Chill Saturday vibes.

So, today’s market? Probably red. Why? Because tomorrow’s a public holiday, and retail traders won’t rush in early. No big data releases today, but tomorrow morning, before 8 AM, Japan drops its GDP report.

Market outlook (UTC+6):

8 AM – 3 PM: Red

4 PM – 6 PM: Calm

7 PM – 11 PM: Green

Midnight – 8 AM: Red, but with some volatility

I’m calling Saturday chill, Sunday red. Meanwhile, Kendrick from Standard Chartered says this weekend will be green. So we’ve got a little competition—Kendrick vs. me, 0-1 in my favor (for now). He didn’t factor in that Monday’s a holiday, which could mess up his prediction.

The banking mess & Bitcoin’s role:

Now, here’s something interesting. If a U.S. bank collapses, Bitcoin tends to go up. Why? Because when a bank fails, it basically means people’s money isn’t actually there—it’s tied up in bad loans.

Right now, there are rumors that a bunch of houses in Washington, D.C., are up for sale. If true, banks with heavy exposure to mortgages (like 80% of their portfolio) could be in trouble. Banks don’t like foreclosing homes—it locks up their money instead of keeping it moving. They’d rather renegotiate payments.

But if a bank does go under, trust in the banking system drops, and people flock to Bitcoin. Remember when SVB collapsed? Bitcoin jumped from $19K to $23K because people were fed up with the system—everyday folks get scrutinized for small transactions, while the elites move billions untouched.

China’s economic strategy:

Then there’s China. Foreign investment there has dried up for 24 months straight—basically, investors don’t trust China anymore. But some say this is part of President Xi’s plan: he wants China’s economy to be self-sufficient.

The logic? If foreign brands dominate—like iPhones, McDonald’s, and Toyota—China’s people are just working for foreign profits. Sure, investment is great, but if it doesn’t come with technology transfer, what’s the point? Workers stay workers, while foreign companies rake in the cash.

Xi wants China to be independent. If they ever get sanctioned like Russia, they’ll still be fine. Used to McDonald’s? Switch to “Mekdo.” Driving Toyota? Swap for BYD. iPhone? There’s Huawei. They’re setting themselves up to stand alone if needed.

Meanwhile, look at Thailand—Toyota’s been investing there since 1960, but Thailand still doesn’t have its own major car brand. If sanctions hit, even simple car parts like ball bearings could get blocked. Heck, even singing a song on stage can trigger a $1.5 billion copyright fine these days.

China, though? They copy everything. A new snack brand like “Nabati” pops up, and boom—next day, there’s ‘Naboti’ everywhere.

So yeah, today’s market? Probably red. But the real action is in bank stability, Bitcoin moves, and China’s long game.