The market is a mix of confusion and cautious optimism – 17 March 2025

The crypto market today’s ride is influenced by a mix of global economic moves, especially from China and the U.S. Here’s the story:

Morning (8:00 – 15:00 UTC+6):

The market might start off shaky (red) because of some moves by China’s central bank, the PBOC. Last Friday, the U.S. Reverse Repo (RRP) rate went up, which usually means tighter liquidity. But on Monday, the PBOC injected a massive 481 billion yuan into the market without withdrawing any, the biggest move since February. This could mean they’re trying to boost liquidity, but it’s confusing because the market didn’t react much over the weekend. Maybe traders are waiting to see how China’s economic data plays out—things like house prices (which fell slightly but less than expected) and retail sales (which went up). If the market ends green during this time, it means traders are focusing more on China’s retail sales and housing data rather than the PBOC’s liquidity moves. But honestly, it’s all a bit of a guessing game right now.

Afternoon (16:00 – 22:00 UTC+6):

This is when things might turn green. U.S. retail sales data is expected to show an increase, which usually signals more liquidity in the U.S. economy. More liquidity often means more money flowing into riskier assets like crypto, so this could give Bitcoin and others a boost.

Evening (22:00 – 24:00 UTC+6):

The market might dip back into red territory here. It’s unclear why, but it could be profit-taking or just a natural pullback after the earlier rally.

Late Night to Early Morning (1:00 – 8:00 UTC+6):

Things could turn green again as the U.S. RRP rate drops, signaling more liquidity. This often encourages investors to move money into assets like Bitcoin.

Weekly Trends:

Last week, Bitcoin had a green weekly close, but Sunday’s closing was red. The overall trend for the week is still positive, and there’s a prediction that Bitcoin could end this week in the green too. However, the market feels a bit broken right now—despite all the liquidity injections and positive data, prices aren’t moving as much as you’d expect. It’s like pouring water into a bucket with a hole; you’re not sure where it’s all going.

China’s liquidity injection. China’s government has been pumping money into the system, aiming to boost the economy. They set a 4% fiscal deficit target for 2025, the highest in 30+ years. That means more government spending on infrastructure, social programs, and stimulus—basically, more money flowing into the economy. But here’s the catch: this also weakens the Yuan and increases inflation.

Today, China’s central bank injected 481 billion yuan, the biggest single-day injection since February. Normally, that kind of liquidity injection should boost markets, but things aren’t moving as expected. Even after China’s retail sales and housing prices showed improvement, the market is still hesitating. Some traders are confused; even the U.S. Treasury Department said, “The market is broken.”

China just announced plans to boost wages (UMR) to drive consumption. Sounds familiar? Japan did the same, and the U.S. might follow.

But here’s the dilemma:

It could trigger a massive economic boom.

It could lead to stagnation (like Japan in the 1990s).

Or it could cause a recession, similar to the Great Depression in the 1930s.

China is walking a tightrope, and Bitcoin is caught in the middle of it all. The real question is: When and at what time does Bitcoin finally break out? Because getting faked out over and over is exhausting!

The market is a mix of confusion and cautious optimism. China’s injecting cash, U.S. retail sales are up, and oil prices are rising slightly (maybe due to tensions in Yemen). But despite all this, the market isn’t reacting strongly. It’s like everyone’s waiting for someone else to make the first move. So, for now, it’s a waiting game to see when and how Bitcoin will break out of this sideways movement.