Hey, so here’s what’s going on with the crypto market today.
Morning (8-10 AM UTC+6):
The market starts slow, just like how we all feel when we wake up. Nothing too exciting—just the usual grind. People are used to this; it’s like your morning coffee routine.
Late Morning to Afternoon (11 AM – 3 PM):
Things start to look green (that’s good!). Why? Japan’s foreign investments are down, and the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is injecting money into the system. But here’s the catch: if the PBOC decides to withdraw more than they inject later, this green trend could turn into a quick dip (a “wick” in crypto terms). The PBOC is trying to keep things stable, but if they pull back too much, it could hurt the market.
Late Afternoon (4-6 PM):
Now the market turns red (not so good). South Korea’s traders are shorting the market, which means they’re betting on prices going down. This adds pressure and pulls the market lower.
Evening (7-10 PM):
Green again! This time, it’s because the Producer Price Index (PPI) is dropping, which hints that inflation might be cooling. This could push the Fed (the U.S. Federal Reserve) to consider cutting interest rates. If that happens, Bitcoin could rise because lower rates usually mean more money flowing into riskier assets like crypto. But the Fed might hold off for now because the government needs cash, and cutting rates too soon could cause problems.
Late Night (10 PM – 12 AM):
Red alert! Market makers (big players who control liquidity) slam the market around 10 AM their time, causing a dip. This is like a sudden storm in the middle of the night—unexpected and a bit scary.
Early Morning (1-8 AM):
Back to green! The Reverse Repo Program (RRP)—a tool the Fed uses to manage liquidity—is dropping. This means more money is being released into the market, which is good for Bitcoin. Yesterday, the RRP only dropped by 5 million, but it needs to drop significantly before the next Fed meeting to really boost the market.
Yesterday, Bitcoin had a wild ride—dumping and pumping—but it closed above 83,000. Inflation is dropping, but not for good reasons. Millions of jobs are disappearing, and the Fed’s strategy of keeping interest rates high is killing jobs instead of creating them. If the Fed cuts rates next week, March inflation could spike. But if they don’t, inflation is still expected to rise slightly. If the Fed holds rates, they’ll sacrifice the RRP to keep the market liquid. If they cut rates, Bitcoin could skyrocket past 100,000. Sounds nice, right?
The PPI drop today is a big deal because it reflects weak demand—people are losing jobs, retail sales are down, and even big names like Jamie Dimon (CEO of JPMorgan) are warning that the chance of a recession has gone up from 30% to 40%.
China is playing its own game. They injected 35.9 billion into their economy but withdrew 68.6 billion. They’re confident their people won’t starve, even if their economy is struggling. It’s wild how they manage to stay stable. Meanwhile, being close to China seems like a better bet than dealing with the drama of the U.S. or waiting for investments from Saudi Arabia. At least the UAE is stepping up.
Bitcoin is decoupling from traditional stocks because it senses that stock market liquidity is drying up. Bitcoin is rising because the Fed won’t let the market stay dry—they need to create jobs and attract investors. The Fed will inject liquidity somehow, whether by cutting rates, lowering the RRP, or other methods. Bitcoin knows one thing: more money in circulation means higher prices for crypto.
That’s why Bitcoin is climbing even after the PBOC’s small injections and Japan’s weak foreign investments. It’s all about the money supply, and Bitcoin is betting on more of it coming into the system. The crypto market today is like a drama series with twists and turns, but the main plot is all about liquidity, inflation, and central bank moves. Bitcoin’s just sitting there, waiting for its moment to shine.
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