Good Morning. Here’s what’s going on in crypto today.
Morning (8-10 AM UTC+6):
The market’s looking a bit red (down) early in the morning. This is pretty normal, especially after some news came out that the U.S. won’t be buying more assets for its stockpile, which caused Bitcoin to drop about 5%. It’s like when people hear news and panic-sell, but it’s just part of the process. Remember, the first reaction in the market is often wrong, so don’t stress too much.
Late Morning to Afternoon (11 AM – 3 PM UTC+6):
Things are expected to turn green (up) during this time. Why? A few reasons:
1. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has been withdrawing liquidity for three days, but historically, they don’t do this on Fridays.
2. Economic data from China is improving, which is a good sign.
3. Japan’s yields are rising, which hints that Japan might start quantitative easing (QE) soon. That usually means more money flowing into the market, which can be good for crypto.
Late Afternoon (4-6 PM UTC+6):
The market might dip back into red territory. This is just part of the usual ebb and flow of trading.
Evening (7-10 PM UTC+6):
Another green phase is expected. Even though the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report is forecasted to show a slight increase in jobs, it’s not enough to make the Federal Reserve (Fed) super hawkish (aggressive with rate hikes). Why? Because other economic data like retail sales, consumer confidence, and ADP employment numbers have been weak. Plus, durable goods orders are down. All of this suggests the Fed might not raise rates aggressively, which is good for Bitcoin.
Late Night (10 PM – 12 AM UTC+6):
The market might dip again during this time.
Early Morning (1:30-3:30 AM UTC+6):
This is a key moment. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is giving a speech, followed by Trump. If Powell doesn’t say anything super alarming (like bringing up Basel End Game III), and if Trump doesn’t make any shocking announcements (like canceling Bitcoin reserves), the market should go green. But there’s always a small chance of surprises, so traders are being cautious.
Pre-Dawn (4-6 AM UTC+6):
Another red phase is expected.
What’s the Big Picture for Bitcoin Today?
The NFP report is the main event. If it’s above 143K, it means the bottom for Bitcoin might be near. If it’s below 143K, Bitcoin could rise because it increases the chances of the Fed cutting interest rates soon. Either way, weak economic data (like falling retail sales, consumer confidence, and ADP numbers) is actually good for Bitcoin because it pressures the Fed to ease up on rate hikes.
The market’s been a bit shaky, but that’s normal. Remember, the first move after big news is often wrong. So, stay patient. Bitcoin tends to go up twice for every one time it drops, and it’s already had its drop. Plus, there’s a big meeting of top crypto industry leaders at the White House today, which could bring some positive vibes.
So, don’t let the short-term dips freak you out. Focus on the fundamentals, and keep an eye on the NFP data. If it’s weak, Bitcoin could rally. If it’s strong, it might still hold steady. Either way, the bigger trend looks promising. Just hang in there!
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